A Wavelet-Based Second Order Nonlinear Model for Forecasting Monthly Rainfall

R Maheswaran () and Rakesh Khosa

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2014, vol. 28, issue 15, 5431 pages

Abstract: In this article, a rainfall forecasting model using monthly historical rainfall data and climate indices is developed by incorporating wavelet analysis (WA) and second order volterra nonlinear model. The monthly rainfall time series and large-scale climate index time series are decomposed using wavelets into a certain number of component subseries at different temporal scales. The lag relationship between the rainfall anomaly and each potential predictor is identified by cross correlation analysis with a lag time of at least 1 month at different temporal scales. The components of predictor variables with known lag times are then integrated using a second order Volterra model. Further, orthogonal least squares method is used to reduce the redundant variables and select the significant variables to be included into the final forecast model. The proposed multivariate wavelet nonlinear rainfall forecasting method is examined with over three places in India, and compared to the traditional ANN model based on the original time series and linear wavelet regression model. The models are trained with data from the 1916 to 1968 period and then tested in the 1968–1989 period. The results show that the proposed wavelet nonlinear model provides considerably more accurate monthly rainfall forecasts for the three selected places in India than the traditional regression model, neural networks model and the wavelet based linear model. It was seen that for the proposed models and other models also, both the past rainfall and the large-scale climate signals were useful in forecasting the future. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Keywords: Climate indices; Monthly rainfall forecasting; Wavelet transform; Second order nonlinear model; India (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-014-0809-6 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:waterr:v:28:y:2014:i:15:p:5411-5431

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11269

DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0809-6

Access Statistics for this article

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) is currently edited by G. Tsakiris

More articles in Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) from Springer, European Water Resources Association (EWRA)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().