Modeling Nonlinear Monthly Evapotranspiration Using Soft Computing and Data Reconstruction Techniques

Sungwon Kim (), Vijay Singh, Youngmin Seo and Hung Kim

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2014, vol. 28, issue 1, 185-206

Abstract: The objective of this study is to develop soft computing and data reconstruction techniques for modeling monthly California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) evapotranspiration (ET o ) at two stations, U.C. Riverside and Durham, in California. The nonlinear dynamics of monthly CIMIS ET o is examined using autocorrelation function, phase space reconstruction, and close returns plot. The generalized regression neural networks and genetic algorithm (GRNN-GA) conjunction model is developed for modeling monthly CIMIS ET o . Among different input variables considered, solar radiation (RAD) is found to be the most effective variable for modeling monthly CIMIS ET o using GRNN-GA for both stations. Adding other input variables to the best 1-input combination improves the model performance. The generalized regression neural networks and backpropagation algorithm (GRNN-BP) conjunction model is compared with the results of GRNN-GA for modeling monthly CIMIS ET o . Two bootstrap resampling methods are implemented to reconstruct the training data. Method 1 (1-BGRNN-GA) employs simple extensions of training data using the bootstrap resampling method. For each training data, method 2 (2-BGRNN-GA) uses individual bootstrap resampling of original training data. Results indicate that Method 2 (2-BGRNN-GA) improves modeling of monthly CIMIS ET o and is more stable and reliable than are GRNN-GA, GRNN-BP, and Method 1 (1-BGRNN-GA). Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Keywords: CIMIS evapotranspiration; Generalized regression; Bootstrap resampling; Genetic algorithm; Ensemble; Nonlinear dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-013-0479-9

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