Benefit and Risk Balance Optimization for Stochastic Hydropower Scheduling

Liu Yuan, Jianzhong Zhou (), Chunlong Li, Mengfei Xie and Li Mo
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Liu Yuan: Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Jianzhong Zhou: Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Chunlong Li: Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Mengfei Xie: Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Li Mo: Huazhong University of Science and Technology

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2016, vol. 30, issue 10, No 3, 3347-3361

Abstract: Abstract Limited by inflow forecasting methods, the forecasting results are so unreliable that we have to take their uncertainty and risk into account when incorporating stochastic inflow into reservoir operation. Especially in the electricity market, punishment often happens when the hydropower station does not perform as planned. Therefore, focusing on the risk of power generation, a benefit and risk balance optimization model (BRM) which takes stochastic inflow as the major risk factor is proposed for stochastic hydropower scheduling. The mean-variance theory is firstly introduced into the optimal dispatching of hydropower station, and a variational risk coefficient is employed to give service to managers’ subjective preferences. Then, the multi-period stochastic inflow is simulated by multi-layer scenario tree. Moreover, a specific scenario reduction and reconstruction method is put forward to reduce branches and computing time accordingly. Finally, the proposed model is applied to the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China for constructing a weekly generation scheduling in falling stage. Compared to deterministic dynamic programming (DDP) and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP), BRM achieves more satisfactory performance. Moreover, the tradeoffs for risk-averse decision makers are discussed, and an efficient curve about benefit and risk is formed to help make decision.

Keywords: Benefit and risk; Optimal scheduling; Stochastic inflows; Multi-layer scenario tree; The Three Gorges Reservoir (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1354-2

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