Multivariate Drought Assessment Considering the Antecedent Drought Conditions

Muhammad Waseem, Muhammad Ajmal, Joo Heon Lee and Tae-Woong Kim ()
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Muhammad Waseem: Hanyang University
Muhammad Ajmal: Hanyang University
Joo Heon Lee: Joongbu University
Tae-Woong Kim: Hanyang University

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2016, vol. 30, issue 12, No 11, 4231 pages

Abstract: Abstract Several drought indices have been developed based on a single variable or multiple variables using very complex calculations. Antecedent conditions are quite significant for analyzing physical processes involved in the conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling and for proper assessment of drought. However, not much attention has been paid to these conditions in the development of drought indices. Hence, we developed an alternative index for drought assessment, i.e., the antecedent condition-based multivariate drought index (AMDI), by taking into consideration all of the forms of drought, including meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought, in combination with the antecedent drought conditions. By comparing the AMDI with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and reconnaissance drought index (RDI), it was revealed that in most cases, the drought trend was more or less the same. However, some discrepancies were also observed. Moreover, by considering additional factors, i.e., the antecedent soil moisture conditions and balance, an approximately 6 % difference in the drought frequency was observed compared to that of the SPI and RDI results, leading to a significant and proper drought assessment. The AMDI was also identified as a multi-scalar, multivariate index, which aggregates the effects of multiple drought forms by maintaining the continuity during month-to-month transitions. Hence, we concluded that the AMDI could be considered as an alternative tool for significant drought assessment.

Keywords: Antecedent condition; Drought; Multivariate index; Soil-water balance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1416-5

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