Water Resources Under Climate Change in Himalayan Basins

Hong Li, Chong-Yu Xu (), Stein Beldring, Lena Merete Tallaksen and Sharad K. Jain
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Hong Li: University of Oslo
Chong-Yu Xu: University of Oslo
Stein Beldring: Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate
Lena Merete Tallaksen: University of Oslo
Sharad K. Jain: National Institute of Hydrology

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2016, vol. 30, issue 2, No 23, 843-859

Abstract: Abstract Climate change has significant implications for glaciers and water resources in the Himalayan region. There is an urgent need to improve our current knowledge and methods in quantifying changes in water resources in this region. This study uses an integrated approach that couples a hydrological model and a glacier retreat model to assess the future water resources for two Himalayan basins. They are the Chamkhar Chhu basin in Bhutan (Eastern Himalayas) and the Beas basin in India (Western Himalayas). The future climate is simulated by two Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for south Asia under three Representative Concentration Pathways (Rcp2.6, Rcp4.5 and Rcp8.5). The six climate projections for the period 2010–2100 indicate significant warming effects; however, projected changes in precipitation are not consistent. Discrepancies in precipitation are noteworthy between the RCMs and greenhouse gases emissions scenarios. The glaciers in the Chamkhar Chhu basin are predicted to disappear or reduce to a small size before the 2050s, whereas the glaciers in the Beas basin are expected to lose mass before the 2060s, and afterwards to gain mass under Rcp2.6 and Rcp4.5, or to melt at a high rate under Rcp8.5. The available water resources per capita of two basins are projected to decrease in the period 2010–2050. The decreasing water resources are jointly induced by climate change and population growth. The latter is responsible for roughly 40 % of the water declines. Both basins are facing water shortages at present and the water shortages will intensify in the future.

Keywords: Climate change; CORDEX; Hydro-glacial modelling; Glacier retreat; Himalayas; Water resources (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-015-1194-5

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