Multiple Random Forests Modelling for Urban Water Consumption Forecasting

Guoqiang Chen (), Tianyu Long (), Jiangong Xiong () and Yun Bai ()
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Guoqiang Chen: Chongqing University
Tianyu Long: Chongqing University
Jiangong Xiong: Chongqing Water Group Co., Ltd.
Yun Bai: Chongqing Technology and Business University

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2017, vol. 31, issue 15, No 1, 4715-4729

Abstract: Abstract The precise forecasting of water consumption is the basis in water resources planning and management. However, predicting water consumption fluctuations is complicated, given their non-stationary and non-linear characteristics. In this paper, a multiple random forests model, integrated wavelet transform and random forests regression (W-RFR), is proposed for the prediction of daily urban water consumption in southwest of China. Raw time series were first decomposed into low- and high-frequency parts with discrete wavelet transformation (DWT). The random forests regression (RFR) method was then used for prediction using each subseries. In the process, the input and output constructions of the RFR model were proposed for each subseries on the basis of the delay times and the embedding dimension of the attractor reconstruction computed by the C-C method, respectively. The forecasting values of each subseries were summarized as the final results. Four performance criteria, i.e., correlation coefficient (R), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) and threshold static (TS), were used to evaluate the forecasting capacity of the W-RFR. The results indicated that the W-RFR can capture the basic dynamics of the daily urban water consumption. The forecasted performance of the proposed approach was also compared with those of models, i.e., the RFR and forward feed neural network (FFNN) models. The results indicated that among the models, the precision of the predictions of the proposed model was greater, which is attributed to good feature extractions from the multi-scale perspective and favorable feature learning performance using the decision trees.

Keywords: Wavelet transform; Random forests regression; Water consumption; Attractor reconstruction; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1774-7

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