Development of a Hybrid Wavelet Packet- Group Method of Data Handling (WPGMDH) Model for Runoff Forecasting

Vahid Moosavi (), Ali Talebi and Mohammad Reza Hadian
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Vahid Moosavi: Yazd University
Ali Talebi: Yazd University
Mohammad Reza Hadian: Yazd University

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2017, vol. 31, issue 1, No 4, 43-59

Abstract: Abstract Effective runoff prediction is one of the main aspects of successful water resources management. One of the most important problems in the modeling of such hydrological processes is the non-stationarities in the data. Several data mining models have deficiencies in handling non-stationary data particularly when signal variations are highly non-stationary. The main objective of this study was to develop a robust model to estimate daily runoff quantities. Firstly, Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) was used in its single form to model the rainfall-runoff process. Then, the discrete wavelet and wavelet packet transforms were used to decompose the original data to their corresponding components. Thereafter, hybrid models were developed using the wavelet-based analyzed data. Three different rivers were selected to perform these modeling approaches. Results showed that GMDH model had a moderate performance (R2 ≈ 0.84, RMSE ≈ 2.17 m3/s and Max. Error ≈ 24 m3/s for Ghale Chay River). Wavelet transform enhanced the ability of the GMDH model to some extent (R2 ≈ 0.90, RMSE ≈ 1.7 m3/s, and Max. Error ≈ 16 m3/s for Ghale-Chay River). However, it was shown that wavelet packet transform significantly enhanced the ability of the single GMDH model with R2 of 0.94, RMSE of 1.37m3/s, and Maximum Error of about 9.8m3/s for Ghale-Chay River. The results were similar in the other two rivers. It was confirmed that the wavelet packet transform can be effectively used to deal with the non- stationarities in the data and can efficiently enhance the performance of GMDH model.

Keywords: Polynomial neural network; GMDH; Rainfall-runoff modeling; Wavelet packet; Discrete wavelet transform (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1507-3

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