The Dynamic Control Bound of Flood Limited Water Level Considering Capacity Compensation Regulation and Flood Spatial Pattern Uncertainty

Qiao-feng Tan, Xu Wang (), Pan Liu, Xiao-hui Lei, Si-yu Cai, Hao Wang and Yi Ji
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Qiao-feng Tan: Sichuan University
Xu Wang: China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
Pan Liu: Wuhan University
Xiao-hui Lei: China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
Si-yu Cai: China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
Hao Wang: China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
Yi Ji: Beijing University of Technology

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2017, vol. 31, issue 1, No 10, 143-158

Abstract: Abstract The dynamic control bound of flood limited water level (FLWL) is a fundamental and key element for implementing reservoir FLWL dynamic control. Due to the uncertainty of the inflow and the dimensional increase of the reservoirs, the calculation of the dynamic control bound of FLWL becomes more and more complicated. A new model that considers capacity compensation regulation and the uncertainty of flood spatial pattern (FSP) for a serial multipurpose reservoir system is developed to calculate the dynamic control bound of FLWL. This model consists of three modules: a compensation regulation module to analyze the feasibility to raise the FLWL and calculate the probable maximum upper bound of the FLWL, a risk control module containing a risk constraint to control flood risk and a Copula function to describe the uncertainty of the FSP, and a simulation operation module to simulate the flood control operation for cascade reservoirs. The proposed model was applied to Pankou-Huanglongtan cascade reservoirs in Du River basin. The application results showed that: 1) the proposed model could give a sufficient consideration about the uncertainty of the FSP, thus a safe and reasonable dynamic control bound of FLWL was derived. 2) the upper FLWL of Huanglongtan reservoir could rise up to 247.64 m from 247.00 m without increasing flood control risk and Huanglongtan reservoir could generate 9 and 7 billion kW.h extra hydropower energy during flood season in wet year 2000 and in dry year 1994, respectively.

Keywords: Flood limited water level; Dynamic control bound; Capacity compensation; Flood spatial pattern; Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1515-3

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