An Integrated Approach of System Dynamics, Orthogonal Experimental Design and Inexact Optimization for Supporting Water Resources Management under Uncertainty

Binglong Wang, Yanpeng Cai (), Xin’An Yin, Qian Tan and Yan Hao
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Binglong Wang: Beijing Normal University
Yanpeng Cai: Beijing Normal University
Xin’An Yin: Beijing Normal University
Qian Tan: China Agricultural University
Yan Hao: Beijing Normal University

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2017, vol. 31, issue 5, No 16, 1665-1694

Abstract: Abstract An integrated approach of system dynamics (SD), orthogonal experimental design (OED) and inexact optimization modeling was proposed for water resources management under uncertainty. The developed method adopted a combination of SD and OED to identify key scenarios within multiple factors, through which interval solutions for water demands could be obtained as input data for consequential optimization modeling. Also, optimal schemes could be obtained in the combination of inexact two-stage stochastic programming and credibility constrained programming. The developed method was applied to a real-world case study for supporting allocation of multiple-source water resources to multiple users in Dalian city within a multi-year context. The results indicated that a lower credibility-satisfaction level would generate higher allocation efficiency, a higher system benefit and a lower system violation risk. The developed model could successfully reflect and address the variety of uncertainties through provision of credibility levels, which corresponds to the decision makers’ preference regarding the tradeoffs between system benefits and violation risks.

Keywords: System dynamics; Orthogonal experimental design; Inexact optimization; Uncertainty; Credibility constrained programming (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1608-7

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