Impact of Spatial Data Availability on Climate Change Prediction in the Weyib River Basin in Ethiopia

Abdulkerim B. Serur () and Arup K. Sarma
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Abdulkerim B. Serur: Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati
Arup K. Sarma: Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2017, vol. 31, issue 6, No 5, 1809-1824

Abstract: Abstract Impact of spatial data availability on the temperature and precipitation prediction characteristics of Weyib River basin in Ethiopia has been investigated using CMIP5-CanESM2 model for the RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios. The objective of the present study is to characterize how future temperatures and precipitation prediction under CMIP5-CanESM2 model output varies against diverse averaged arbitrary spatial weather stations found in the basin. The statistical downscaling model tested and verified using the observed daily data for twelve, six and three averaged arbitrary spatial weather stations as well as for a single weather station was used to predict the future climate scenarios. The results revealed that the mean annual daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation for twelve, six and three arbitrary spatial stations have revealed an increasing trend in the upcoming periods until the end of the century. In single station analysis, the trend itself has changed from increasing trend to decreasing trend in case of maximum and minimum temperature. In case of precipitation, no visible trend has been observed in case of single station analysis. Therefore, the variation in amount and distribution of precipitation and temperature among the four averaged spatial stations in the same study area might affect the water resources and agriculture of the basin and also instead of using a single weather station to predict future climate variables for a particular study basin, it is more reliable using averages of numerous spatial weather stations data.

Keywords: Spatial data availability; Climate change prediction; CMIP5-CanESM2-RCP experiment; Averaged arbitrary spatial stations; Weyib River basin; Ethiopia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1613-x

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