Assessing the Impact of Climate Changes on Hydrological Drought Based on Reservoir Performance Indices (Case Study: ZayandehRud River Basin, Iran)

S. Khajeh, Sh. Paimozd and M. Moghaddasi ()
Additional contact information
S. Khajeh: Arak University
Sh. Paimozd: Arak University
M. Moghaddasi: Arak University

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2017, vol. 31, issue 9, No 4, 2595-2610

Abstract: Abstract We investigated the potential impacts of climate changes on hydrological drought of the Zayandehrud basin in Iran. The meteorological data was simulated using the LARS-WG model by output downscaling of HADCM3, INCM3 and NCCCSM from 2011 to 2040 under A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. In order to estimate the runoff of the basin, the IHACRES model was calibrated and validated by data obtained from the Koohrang station during 1987–2007. The runoff was calculated for 2011–2040 period based on the mean of downscaling values in the IHACRES model. Then, the impact of climate changes on hydrological drought was studied by a probabilistic approach and MSUI index. The results revealed a drastic reduction in normal levels and also a significant increase in moderate, severe, and very severe drought levels in the future compared to the base period. The MSUI index represents a 42.32% reduction in the normal level based on the HADCM3 model under A1B scenario as well as an 86.8%increasein the severe drought. Furthermore, the HADCM3 model using the probabilistic approach showed a 73% reduction under the A2 scenario for normal condition and an increase of 20% for severe drought.

Keywords: Climate change; Hydrological drought; MSUI index; Probability approach; Reservoir (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-017-1642-5 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:9:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1642-5

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11269

DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1642-5

Access Statistics for this article

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) is currently edited by G. Tsakiris

More articles in Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) from Springer, European Water Resources Association (EWRA)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().