Learning from Multiple Models Using Artificial Intelligence to Improve Model Prediction Accuracies: Application to River Flows

M. A. Ghorbani (), R. Khatibi (), V. Karimi, Zaher Mundher Yaseen and M. Zounemat-Kermani
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M. A. Ghorbani: University of Tabriz
R. Khatibi: GTEV-ReX Limited
V. Karimi: University of Tabriz
Zaher Mundher Yaseen: Ton Duc Thang University
M. Zounemat-Kermani: Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2018, vol. 32, issue 13, No 4, 4215 pages

Abstract: Abstract An investigation is presented in this paper to study the performance of Artificial Intelligence running Multiple Models (AIMM) using time series of river flows. This is a modelling strategy, which is formed by first running two Artificial Intelligence (AI) models: Support Vector Machine (SVM) and its hybrid with the Fire-Fly Algorithm (FFA) and they both form supervised learning at Level 1. The outputs of Level 1 models serve as inputs to another AI Model at Level 2. The AIMM strategy at Level 2 is run by Artificial Neural Network (MM-ANN) and this is compared with the Simple Averaging (MM-SA) of both inputs. The study of the performances of these models (SVM, SVM-FFA, MM-SA and MM-ANN) in the paper shows that the ability of SVM-FFA in matching observed values is significantly better than that of SVM and that of MM-ANN is considerably better than each SVM and/or SVM-FFA but the performances are deteriorated by using the MM-SA strategy. The results also show that the residuals of MM-ANN are less noisy than those shown by the models at Level 1 and those at Level 2 do not display any trend.

Keywords: Multiple Models (MM); Two-level MM strategy; Monthly river flow records; Scatter of error residuals; Distressed Lake Urmia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-2038-x

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