Stream Flow Forecasting of Poorly Gauged Mountainous Watershed by Least Square Support Vector Machine, Fuzzy Genetic Algorithm and M5 Model Tree Using Climatic Data from Nearby Station

Rana Muhammad Adnan (), Xiaohui Yuan (), Ozgur Kisi (), Muhammad Adnan () and Asif Mehmood ()
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Rana Muhammad Adnan: Huazhong University of Science & Technology
Xiaohui Yuan: Huazhong University of Science & Technology
Ozgur Kisi: Ilia State University
Muhammad Adnan: Chinese Academy of Science
Asif Mehmood: Huazhong University of Science & Technology

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2018, vol. 32, issue 14, No 2, 4469-4486

Abstract: Abstract Forecasting stream flow is a very importance issue in water resources planning and management. The ability of three soft computing methods, least square support vector machine (LSSVM), fuzzy genetic algorithm (FGA) and M5 model tree (M5T), in forecasting daily and monthly stream flows of poorly gauged mountainous watershed using nearby hydro-meteorological data is investigated in the current study. In the first application, monthly stream flows of Hunza river are forecasted using local stream flow data of Hunza and precipitation and temperature data of nearby station. LSSVM provides slightly better forecasts than the FGA and M5T models. Stream flow and temperature inputs generally give better forecasts compared to other inputs. In the second application, daily stream flows of Hunza river are forecasted using local stream flow data of Hunza and precipitation and temperature data of nearby station. Better results are obtained from the models comprising only stream flow inputs. In general, a better accuracy is obtained from LSSVM models in relative to the FGA and M5T. The results indicate that the monthly and daily stream flows of Hunza can be accurately forecasted by using only nearby climatic data. In the third application, daily stream flows of Hunza river are forecasted using local stream flow and climatic data and the models’ accuracy is slightly increased in relative to the previous applications. LSSVM generally performs superior to the FGA and M5T in forecasting daily stream flow of Hunza river using local stream flow and climatic inputs.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic approach; Genetic algorithm; Least square support vector machine; M5 model tree; Streamflow forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-2033-2

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