A Decentralized Bi-Level Fuzzy Two-Stage Decision Model for Flood Management

Hong Wang and Xiaodong Zhang ()
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Hong Wang: South University of Science and Technology of China
Xiaodong Zhang: Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2018, vol. 32, issue 5, No 6, 1615-1629

Abstract: Abstract Flood, as a serious worldwide environment problem, can lead to detrimental economic losses and fatalities. Effective flood control is desired to mitigate the adverse impacts of flooding and the associated flood risk through development of cost-effective and efficient flood management decisions and policies. A bi-level fuzzy two-stage stochastic programming model, named BIFS model is developed in this study to provide decision support for economic analysis of flood management. The BIFS model is capable of not only addressing the sequential decision making issue involving the two-level decision makers, but also correcting the pre-regulated flood management decisions before the occurrence of a flood event in the two-stage environment. The probabilistic and non-probabilistic uncertainties expressed as probability density functions and fuzzy sets are quantitatively analyzed. The overall satisfaction solution is obtained for meeting the goals of the two-level decision makers by compromising, reflecting the tradeoffs among various decision makers in the two decision-making levels. The results of application of the BIFS model to a representative case study indicate informed decision strategies for flood management. Tradeoffs between economic objectives and uncertainty-averse attitudes of decision makers are quantified.

Keywords: Flood management; Diversion; Two-level; Two-stage; Economic analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1894-0

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