An Ensemble Meta-Modelling Approach Using the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence for Developing Saltwater Intrusion Management Strategies in Coastal Aquifers

Dilip Kumar Roy () and Bithin Datta
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Dilip Kumar Roy: James Cook University
Bithin Datta: James Cook University

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2019, vol. 33, issue 2, No 20, 775-795

Abstract: Abstract The optimum abstraction policy of coastal groundwater resources is prescribed by solving a meta-model based saltwater intrusion management model. Groundwater parameter uncertainties are explicitly incorporated into the developed meta-models in order to address the uncertainties present in coastal aquifer processes. Nevertheless, the accuracy and consequent reliability of such a management model depends upon the right choice of meta-models or a combination of meta-models. The optimal combination of meta-models, also referred to as an ensemble meta-model, can be selected by applying the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence. D-S evidence theory provides a platform upon which to base the selection of the best meta-model or combination of meta-models to formulate the preferred ensemble. This study demonstrates the application of D-S theory to provide an ensemble of meta-models for developing saltwater intrusion management models in coastal aquifers. The prediction accuracy of the developed ensemble meta-model is compared with that of the best standalone meta-model in the ensemble. The results confirm that the ensemble meta-model performs equally well when compared with the best meta-model in the ensemble. The developed meta-models and their ensemble are then used to develop computationally feasible multiple objective saltwater intrusion management models by utilizing an integrated simulation-optimization approach. The solution results of the management models demonstrate the superiority of the ensemble meta-model approach over standalone meta-models in obtaining Pareto optimal groundwater abstraction patterns. The evaluation of the proposed methodology is demonstrated using an illustrative multilayer coastal aquifer system subjected to groundwater parameter uncertainties.

Keywords: Coastal aquifer; Management model; Meta-models; Ensemble; Dempster-Shafer theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-2142-y

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