The Contributions of Climate Changes and Human Activities to Long-Term Variations in Lake Sediments Based on Results from Generalized Additive Models

Zhuoshi He, Shouliang Huo (), Chunzi Ma, Hanxiao Zhang, Da An, Beidou Xi, Qiujing Xu, Xinghui Xia and Fengchang Wu
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Zhuoshi He: Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences
Shouliang Huo: Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences
Chunzi Ma: Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences
Hanxiao Zhang: Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences
Da An: Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences
Beidou Xi: Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences
Qiujing Xu: Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences
Xinghui Xia: Beijing Normal University-State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation
Fengchang Wu: Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2019, vol. 33, issue 3, No 11, 1069-1085

Abstract: Abstract Climate changes and human activities can influence lake sediments, which may lead to disruptions in aquatic environments. A better understanding of these effects is crucial for the future management of lakes and reservoirs. The impacts of climate change and human activity factors, such as air temperature, land use patterns, population size, and gross domestic product (GDP), on lake sediments in China were considered in this study. A generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to quantitatively assess the relationships among climate change, human activities, and sediment variables, namely, total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP), in Lake Chaohu and Lake Chenghai. Both lakes are located in climate-sensitive areas, where the annual average temperature has risen by more than 1 °C over the past three decades. The impacts of climate changes and human activities on TOC, TN, and TP were quantitatively interpreted with the results of the GAMs. The results indicated that the contributions of air temperature to the variations in the sediment variables were significant but smaller than the contributions of human activities (e.g., percent of urban and paddy land, population size, and GDP) in both lakes. The fits of all GAMs were better than the fits of the stepwise linear regression comparisons. These findings demonstrate that GAMs are an effective tool for estimating the impacts of climate change and human activities on TOC, TN, and TP in lake sediments, suggesting that policy makers must further consider climate change when making management plans for water quality.

Keywords: Climate change; Human activities; GAM; Lake sediment variables (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-2167-2

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