Quantitative Vulnerability Model of Earth Dam Overtopping and its Application

Chong-Xun Mo, Gui-Yan Mo (), Liu Peng, Qing Yang, Xin-Rong Zhu, Qing-Ling Jiang and Ju-Liang Jin
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Chong-Xun Mo: Guangxi University
Gui-Yan Mo: Guangxi University
Liu Peng: Guangxi University
Qing Yang: Guangxi University
Xin-Rong Zhu: Guangxi University
Qing-Ling Jiang: Changjiang Institute of Technology
Ju-Liang Jin: Hefei University of Technology

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2019, vol. 33, issue 5, No 11, 1815 pages

Abstract: Abstract Dam failure constituted a considerable threat to human life and created corresponding losses. Hence, this paper proposed a quantitative vulnerability evaluation model to estimate the consequences of dam overtopping, including loss assessment and vulnerability degree calculations. A composite normalized function was applied to convert dam overtopping loss to a vulnerability degree ranging from 0 to 1. In addition, many complex factors were simplified in the loss estimation, and the thresholds of various types of losses were proposed and adapted to the national and regional conditions. Then, loss of life, economic loss, social loss and environmental loss were incorporated into the vulnerability degree model based on a comprehensive evaluation method and were further assigned weights. Finally, vulnerability degree grading criteria was divided based on three significant cut-off values, and the corresponding guidelines for vulnerability evaluation were explained in detail. The methodology was applied to Chengbihe Reservoir in China to illustrate the assessment process of flood overtopping loss and to evaluate the vulnerability degree of the area. The results indicated that (1) dam overtopping vulnerability degree of the Chengbihe Reservoir was 0.89, which was within the range of “extremely high vulnerability” and (2) countermeasures were necessary; for example, early flood warning and forecast systems must be developed for the reservoir so that people and property in flooded areas can be safely evacuated during the process of emergencies.

Keywords: Earth dam overtopping; Loss assessment; Vulnerability degree; Quantitative model; AHP; Comprehensive evaluation method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-2195-6

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