A Multi-Objective Risk-Based Game Theoretic Approach to Reservoir Operation Policy in Potential Future Drought Condition

Mohammad S. Khorshidi (), Mohammad Reza Nikoo (), Mojtaba Sadegh () and Banafsheh Nematollahi ()
Additional contact information
Mohammad S. Khorshidi: Shiraz University
Mohammad Reza Nikoo: Shiraz University
Mojtaba Sadegh: Boise State University
Banafsheh Nematollahi: Shiraz University

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2019, vol. 33, issue 6, No 6, 1999-2014

Abstract: Abstract In this paper, by using the concept of Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), a Leader-Follower game (LFG) based multi-objective optimization model is developed to determine the optimum 12-month operation policy of a reservoir in potential future dry periods. The minimization of CVaRs of storage loss and agricultural and environmental deficits along with maximization of planned allocation to agricultural sector are considered as leader’s objectives, while the followers try to maximize their share of water rights using Nash bargaining (NB) method. This framework is then used to model the operation policy of Dorudzan basin in Fars province, southwestern Iran. Water demand and daily climate data in the period of 2003 to 2015 for this basin, as well as future projections from fifteen IPCC-AR4 global circulation models (GCMs) for 2018–2030 under A2, B1 and A1B emission scenarios are considered to evaluate future dam operation policies. Future projections are downscaled using the LARS-WG model, which then feeds the HMETS watershed model to simulate the corresponding reservoir inflow time-series. Thereafter, three-hundred 12-month rainfall, evaporation and inflow time series with least inflow volume are used as input for the optimization model, which is solved using NSGA-II and GA algorithms. The results show while the model can determine the operation policy that keeps the associated risks in the acceptable range, it can satisfy the followers demands with respect to the available resources. The results also show that the agricultural sector of the study area can be hugely affected by potential future droughts.

Keywords: Reservoir operation policy; Drought impact; Crop pattern optimization; Leader-follower game method; Conditional value at risk (CVaR); LARS-WG (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-019-02223-w Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02223-w

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11269

DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02223-w

Access Statistics for this article

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) is currently edited by G. Tsakiris

More articles in Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) from Springer, European Water Resources Association (EWRA)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().