Flood Frequency Analysis of Interconnected Rivers by Copulas

Esmaeel Dodangeh (), Vijay P. Singh, Binh Thai Pham (), Jiabo Yin, Guang Yang and Amirhosein Mosavi ()
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Esmaeel Dodangeh: Sari Agriculture Science and Natural Resources University
Vijay P. Singh: Texas A & M University
Binh Thai Pham: Duy Tan University
Jiabo Yin: Wuhan University
Guang Yang: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Amirhosein Mosavi: Ton Duc Thang University

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2020, vol. 34, issue 11, No 7, 3533-3549

Abstract: Abstract Flood frequency analysis (FFA) considering the confluence of interconnected rivers is important for hydraulic structures (such as dams or diversions) design, but it has received little attention. This study develops a copula-based method for FFA and quantile estimation considering the confluence of two interconnected rivers, along with the uncertainty estimation by a nonparametric bootstrapping algorithm. Flood probability distribution and return periods are estimated for the two rivers by mapping from bivariate to univariate peak flow quantile estimation. The methodology is applied to the case study of Qezel Ozan and Shahrud Rivers which merge to one of the largest reservoir dams in Iran: Sefidrud (Manjil) dam. According to the results from Peak flow records from Gilvan station (GPF) at Qezel Ozan River and from Loshan station (LCF) at Shahrud River, Gaussian copula with Weibull and gamma margins fits best. Also, it shows that some peak flow quantiles with the same magnitudes have a different probability of occurrences at the confluence of the rivers, and the bivariate estimation uncertainty usually plays an important role in FFA. These findings suggest the use of bivariate instead of univariate distributions to the peak flows at the confluence of interconnected rivers, in which the sampling uncertainty should be considered.

Keywords: Interconnected rivers; Copulas; Gaussian; Weibull; Return period; Sefidrud (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02634-0

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