A New Method for Joint Frequency Analysis of Modified Precipitation Anomaly Percentage and Streamflow Drought Index Based on the Conditional Density of Copula Functions

Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi (), Yousef Ramezani (), Carlo De Michele () and Rasoul Mirabbasi ()
Additional contact information
Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi: University of Birjand
Yousef Ramezani: University of Birjand
Carlo De Michele: Politecnico di Milano
Rasoul Mirabbasi: Shahrekord University

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2020, vol. 34, issue 13, No 17, 4217-4231

Abstract: Abstract In this study, a new method was proposed to model the occurrence of related variables based on the conditional density of copula functions. The proposed method was adopted to investigate the dynamics of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Zarinehroud basin, southeast of Lake Urmia, during the period 1994–2015. For this purpose, the modified precipitation anomaly percentage and streamflow drought indices were extracted. Finally, the joint frequency analysis of duration-duration and severity-severity characteristics of meteorological and hydrological droughts was analyzed. Analysis of 7 different copulas used to create the joint distribution in the Zarinehroud basin indicated that the Frank copula had the best performance in describing the relationship between the meteorological and hydrological drought severities and durations. By examining the results of the bivariate analysis of duration-duration of meteorological and hydrological droughts at different stations, the expected meteorological and hydrological drought durations were estimated in the years ahead. For example, at Chalkhmaz station, 4- to 7-month duration for the hydrological drought and 9- to 12-month duration for the meteorological drought is expected in the years ahead. The joint frequency analysis of drought characteristics allows to determine the meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics at a single station at the same time using joint probabilities. Also, the results indicated that by knowing the conditional density, the hydrological drought characteristics can be easily estimated for the given meteorological drought characteristics. This could provide users and researchers useful information about the probabilistic behavior of drought characteristics for optimal operation of surface water.

Keywords: Bivariate copula; Conditional density; Hydrological drought; Joint return period (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-020-02666-6 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:waterr:v:34:y:2020:i:13:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02666-6

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11269

DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02666-6

Access Statistics for this article

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) is currently edited by G. Tsakiris

More articles in Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) from Springer, European Water Resources Association (EWRA)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().