Quantifying the Uncertainty Interaction Between the Model Input and Structure on Hydrological Processes

Shuai Zhou, Yimin Wang (), Ziyan Li, Jianxia Chang and Aijun Guo
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Shuai Zhou: Xi’an University of Technology
Yimin Wang: Xi’an University of Technology
Ziyan Li: Xi’an University of Technology
Jianxia Chang: Xi’an University of Technology
Aijun Guo: Xi’an University of Technology

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2021, vol. 35, issue 12, No 2, 3915-3935

Abstract: Abstract Input error is one of the main sources of uncertainty in hydrological models. It mainly comes from the uncertainty of precipitation data, which is caused by inaccurate measurement at the point scale and imperfect representation at the regional scale. The structural error of the hydrological model is dependent on the input, and the uncertainty interaction between the model input and structural will increase the cumulative error of the hydrological process. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the impacts of the uncertainties of rain gauge station input levels and hydrological models on flows with different magnitudes by setting nine input levels of rain gauge stations using three hydrological models (i.e., HyMod, XAJ and HBV). The variance decomposition method based on subsampling was used to dynamically quantify the contribution rates of rain gauge station input levels, hydrological models, and their interaction to the runoff simulation uncertainty. The results show that different rain gauge station input levels and hydrological models dynamically affected the hydrological simulation due to an uneven spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation. Moreover, the simulation accuracy was poor at low flow but better at high flow. Increasing the number of rainfall stations input under a certain threshold could significantly improve the hydrological simulation accuracy. In addition, the contributions of the uncertainties of the rain gauge station input levels and its interaction with the hydrological model to runoff were significantly enhanced in the flood season, but the contribution of the hydrological model uncertainty was still dominant. The results of this study can provide a decision-making basis and scientific guidance for the management and planning of water resources within basins under the influence of a changing environment.

Keywords: Input uncertainty; The uncertainty interaction; Hydrological model; Jialing river basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02883-7

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