Incorporation of Cost-Benefit Analysis Considering Epistemic Uncertainty for Calculating the Optimal Design Flood

Sang Ug Kim () and Cheol-Eung Lee ()
Additional contact information
Sang Ug Kim: Kangwon National University
Cheol-Eung Lee: Kangwon National University

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2021, vol. 35, issue 2, No 20, 757-774

Abstract: Abstract Design flood via flood frequency analysis provides basic information for designing hydraulic structures. Quantification of uncertainty in flood frequency analysis has become an important issue during the past three decades. However, few studies have considered practical procedures for selecting a single design flood in the uncertainty range. Cost-benefit analysis can be incorporated to select a single design flood by calculating the optimal value in the total expected cost function. In particular, in this study, the relationship between conventional flood frequency analysis and cost-benefit analysis is addressed. Additionally, the parameter uncertainty is quantified by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to find the optimal design floods considering parameter uncertainty. The annual maximum (AM) series and partial duration (PD) series were used to identify the effect of various types of data. The optimal design floods obtained by the cost-benefit analysis considering parameter uncertainty were systematically larger than the design flood obtained by the conventional flood frequency analysis. Regarding the types of data, the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) had the largest values in all return periods, while the Gumbel distribution had the smallest values in all cases.

Keywords: Cost-benefit analysis; Optimal design flood; Total expected cost function; Metropolis-Hastings algorithm; AM series; PD series (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-021-02764-z Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02764-z

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11269

DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02764-z

Access Statistics for this article

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) is currently edited by G. Tsakiris

More articles in Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) from Springer, European Water Resources Association (EWRA)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().