Flood Wave Superposition Analysis Using Quantitative Matching Patterns of Peak Magnitude and Timing in Response to Climate Change

Qiumei Ma, Lihua Xiong, Chong-Yu Xu, Rongrong Li, Changming Ji and Yanke Zhang ()
Additional contact information
Qiumei Ma: North China Electric Power University
Lihua Xiong: Wuhan University
Chong-Yu Xu: University of Oslo
Rongrong Li: Wuhan University
Changming Ji: North China Electric Power University
Yanke Zhang: North China Electric Power University

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2021, vol. 35, issue 8, No 8, 2409-2432

Abstract: Abstract Flood wave superposition (FWS) of upstream and tributary rivers, as a typical compound hydrological event, may lead to considerable downstream flood hazards. In spite of this, the quantitative identification of FWS classification so far remains elusive. In this study, we quantitatively examined the typical matching patterns of FWS based on flood peak magnitude and timing between the upstream and tributary discharge, to evaluate the flood severity for both present-day conditions and future climate projections. The future FWS projection was realized using hydrological modeling coupled with multiple outputs of global climate models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios. A triple point of discharge stations, including upstream, downstream and tributary stations, located at a river confluence of the Poyang Lake Basin, China, was selected as the study area. The results revealed that the frequency of perfect temporal matching (0-day time lag) of projected peaks between upstream and tributary floods increased from 61% in the reference period to >68% and > 66% in the future under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. Furthermore, both the future numbers and frequencies of the projected peaks between upstream and tributary floods with both perfect temporal and magnitude matching (the classification associated with the most damage in FWS) would substantially increase across all GCMs under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5. These findings indicate that future FWS is expected to experience increasing severity due to the changing climate under no matter RCP 2.6 or 8.5 emission scenarios. Overall, it is suggested that effective adaptation strategies be developed in order to stagger the timing of upstream and tributary floods in the future.

Keywords: Climate change; Flood projection; Compound events; Hydrological modeling; GCMs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-021-02837-z Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:8:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02837-z

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11269

DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02837-z

Access Statistics for this article

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) is currently edited by G. Tsakiris

More articles in Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) from Springer, European Water Resources Association (EWRA)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().