Middle- and Long-Term Streamflow Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis Using Lasso-DBN-Bootstrap Model

Haibo Chu, Jiahua Wei () and Yuan Jiang
Additional contact information
Haibo Chu: Tsinghua University
Jiahua Wei: Tsinghua University
Yuan Jiang: Beijing Institute of Geology

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2021, vol. 35, issue 8, No 20, 2617-2632

Abstract: Abstract Middle-term and long-term streamflow forecasting is of great significance for water resources planning and management, cascade reservoirs optimal operation, agriculture and hydro-power generation. In this work, a framework was proposed which integrates least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso), DBN and bootstrap to improve the performance and the stability of streamflow forecasting with the lead-time of one month. Lasso helps to screen the appropriate predictors for the DBN model, and the DBN model simulates the complex relationship between the selection predictors and streamflow, and then bootstrap with the DBN model contributes to evaluate the uncertainty. The Three-River Headwaters Region (TRHR) was taken as a case study. The results indicated that lasso-DBN-bootstrap model produced significantly more accurate forecasting results than the other three models and provides reliable information on the forecasting uncertainty, which will be valuable for water resources management and planning.

Keywords: Middle-term and long-term streamflow forecasting; Lasso; Deep belief networks (DBN); Bootstrap; Three-River headwaters region (TRHR) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-021-02854-y Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:8:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02854-y

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11269

DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02854-y

Access Statistics for this article

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) is currently edited by G. Tsakiris

More articles in Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) from Springer, European Water Resources Association (EWRA)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().