Improving Annual Streamflow Prediction by Extracting Information from High-frequency Components of Streamflow

Lili Wang (), Yanlong Guo and Manhong Fan
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Lili Wang: College of Physics and Electronic Engineering, Northwest Normal University
Yanlong Guo: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Manhong Fan: College of Physics and Electronic Engineering, Northwest Normal University

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2022, vol. 36, issue 12, No 6, 4535-4555

Abstract: Abstract Annual streamflow prediction is of great significance to the sustainable utilization of water resources, and predicting it accurately is challenging due to changes in streamflow have strong nonlinearity and uncertainty. To improve the prediction accuracy of annual streamflow, this study proposes a new hybrid prediction model based on extracting information from high-frequency components of streamflow. In the proposed model, the original streamflow data is decomposed by ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with different frequencies. Then, the dominant component and residual component are identified from the high-frequency components IMF1 and IMF2 using singular spectrum analysis (SSA), and the residual components are accumulated as a new component. Finally, all the components, including the new component that is not noise, are modelled by support vector machine (SVM), and the SVM is optimized by grey wolf optimizer (GWO). To analyse and verify the proposed model, the annual streamflow data are collected from the Liyuan River and Taolai River in the Heihe River Basin, and six models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), cross validation (CV)-SVM, GWO-SVM, EEMD-ARIMA, EEMD-GWO-SVM and modified EEMD-GWO-SVM are considered as comparison models. The results indicate that the prediction performance of the proposed model is obviously better than that of other reference models, and extracting valuable information from high-frequency components can effectively improve annual streamflow prediction. Thus, the high-frequency components contained in the original streamflow series have an important impact on obtaining accurate streamflow prediction, and the proposed model makes full use of the high-frequency components and provides a reliable method for streamflow prediction.

Keywords: Annual streamflow prediction; Support vector machine; Ensemble empirical mode decomposition; Singular spectrum analysis; Grey wolf optimizer; High-frequency component (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03262-6

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