Uncertainty Quantification of Rainfall-runoff Simulations Using the Copula-based Bayesian Processor: Impacts of Seasonality, Copula Selection and Correlation Coefficient

Zhangjun Liu, Jingwen Zhang, Tianfu Wen and Jingqing Cheng ()
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Zhangjun Liu: Jiangxi Academy of Water Science and Engineering
Jingwen Zhang: Jiangxi Academy of Water Science and Engineering
Tianfu Wen: Jiangxi Academy of Water Science and Engineering
Jingqing Cheng: Jiangxi Academy of Water Science and Engineering

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2022, vol. 36, issue 13, No 7, 4993 pages

Abstract: Abstract The outputs of Rainfall-runoff models are inherently uncertain and quantifying the associated uncertainty is crucial for water resources management activities. This study presents the uncertainty quantification of rainfall-runoff simulations using the copula-based Bayesian processor (CBP) in Danjiangkou Reservoir basin, China. The seasonality of uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modeling is explored, and impacts of copula selection and correlation coefficient on uncertainty quantification results are investigated. Results show that the overall performance of the CBP is satisfactory, which provides a useful tool for estimating the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations. It is also demonstrated that the dry season has higher reliability and greater resolution compared with wet season, which illustrates that the CBP captures the actual uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations more accurately in dry season. Moreover, the performance the CBP highly depends on the selected Copula function and considered Kendall tau correlation coefficient. As a result, great attention should be paid to selecting the appropriate Copula function and effectively capturing the actual dependence between observed and simulated flows in the CBP-based uncertainty quantification of rainfall-runoff simulations practice.

Keywords: Hydrological model; Probabilistic simulation; Marginal distribution; Conditional distribution; Danjiangkou Reservoir (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03287-x

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