Global Sensitivity Analysis of a Coupled Hydro-Economic Model and Groundwater Restriction Assessment

José M. Rodríguez-Flores (), Jorge A. Valero Fandiño (), Spencer A. Cole (), Keyvan Malek (), Tina Karimi (), Harrison B. Zeff (), Patrick M. Reed (), Alvar Escriva-Bou () and Josué Medellín-Azuara ()
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José M. Rodríguez-Flores: University of California Merced
Jorge A. Valero Fandiño: University of California Merced
Spencer A. Cole: University of California Merced
Keyvan Malek: Cornell University
Tina Karimi: Cornell University
Harrison B. Zeff: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Patrick M. Reed: Cornell University
Alvar Escriva-Bou: Public Policy Institute of California
Josué Medellín-Azuara: University of California Merced

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2022, vol. 36, issue 15, No 18, 6115-6130

Abstract: Abstract Assessing impacts on coupled food-water systems that may emerge from water policies, changes in economic drivers and crop productivity requires an understanding of dominant uncertainties. This paper assesses how a candidate groundwater pumping restriction and crop prices, crop yields, surface water price, electricity price, and parametric uncertainties shape economic and groundwater performance metrics from a coupled hydro-economic model (HEM) through a diagnostic global sensitivity analysis (GSA). The HEM used in this study integrates a groundwater depth response, modeled by an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), into a calibrated Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) agricultural production model. Results show that in addition to a groundwater pumping restriction, performance metrics are highly sensitive to prices and yields of perennial tree crops. These sensitivities become salient during dry years when there is a higher reliance on groundwater. Furthermore, results indicate that performing a GSA for two different water baseline conditions used to calibrate the production model, dry and wet, result in different sensitivity indices magnitudes and factor prioritization. Diagnostic GSA results are used to understand key factors that affect the performance of a groundwater pumping restriction policy. This research is applied to the Wheeler Ridge-Maricopa Water Storage District located in Kern County, California, region reliant on groundwater and vulnerable to surface water shortages.

Keywords: Sensitivity analysis; Hydro-economic model; Groundwater management; California (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03344-5

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