A Novel Framework for Urban Flood damage Assessment

Fatemeh Yavari (), Seyyed Ali Salehi Neyshabouri (), Jafar Yazdi (), Amir Molajou () and Adam Brysiewicz ()
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Fatemeh Yavari: Tarbiat Modares University
Seyyed Ali Salehi Neyshabouri: Tarbiat Modares University
Jafar Yazdi: Shahid Beheshti University
Amir Molajou: Iran University of Science & Technology
Adam Brysiewicz: Institute of Technology and Life Sciences

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2022, vol. 36, issue 6, No 15, 2011 pages

Abstract: Abstract In the current study, a novel method is proposed to analyze the simultaneous impacts of non-stationarity in hydrological time series and land-use changes in urban areas to predict future floods and probable damage. For this purpose, rainfall frequency and land-use changes analyses were conducted for two time periods (first: 1979–2009 and second: 1979–2019), and the results were compared. Then, hydrologic modeling of the catchment was carried out using the HEC-HMS model, and obtained hydrographs were fed to the HEC-RAS2D model for estimating flood inundation areas. Using the financial information of assets and their damage functions, flood damages related to these two periods were evaluated through the HEC-FIA model. The results indicated that in the low return periods (e.g., 2-year flood), the damage in the second period was decreased with respect to the first one but increased for the return periods of 5 to 100 years. In the surface runoff, a 4.65% increase due to land-use change and a 12% increase due to rainfall non-stationarity signed the important role the hydrologic condition plays compared to land-use changes in flood modeling. Moreover, flood damage showed a 136% increase on average, and among the two studied factors, the non-stationarity of rainfalls is considerably more effective on flood intensification. All the points show that the studied socio-hydrological system is completely dynamic.

Keywords: Urban flood damage; Rainfall non-stationarity; Urban development; HEC-RAS2D; HEC-FIA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03122-3

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