Risk Analysis of Dynamic Water Level Setting of Reservoir in Flood Season Based on Multi-index

Zhenyu Mu, Xueshan Ai (), Jie Ding, Kui Huang, Senlin Chen, Jiajun Guo and Zuo Dong
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Zhenyu Mu: Wuhan University
Xueshan Ai: Wuhan University
Jie Ding: Wuhan University
Kui Huang: Guangxi Electric Power Dispatching and Control Center
Senlin Chen: Wuhan University
Jiajun Guo: Wuhan University
Zuo Dong: Wuhan University

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2022, vol. 36, issue 9, No 11, 3067-3086

Abstract: Abstract Long-term operation of the reservoir at the flood limit water level (FLWL) in the flood season is not conducive to the exertion of the comprehensive benefits of the reservoir, especially in the flood free period, causing a certain waste of resources. In order to make full use of water resources and avoid the risk of flooding due to extreme events, this paper proposes a dynamic water level decision-making model in flood free period, which considers the utmost of resources, effective response measures for possible catastrophic floods and the credible decision method, thus improving the operational benefit of hydropower station in the flood season and reducing flood control risk. The proposed model includes four modules. Firstly, historical data and the fuzzy statistical test method are used to divide the flood season into multiple stages. Secondly, the maximum inflow process in the effective forecast period of flood forecast in each stage is selected, and according to this inflow process, the operating limited water level (OLWL) in the flood free period of each stage is determined based on the reservoir discharge capacity, then the operating water level range and discharge ratio are discretized. Thirdly, multi-order Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) and Monte Carlo method are used to calculate the risk rate, and the scheme set is established by the three variables of power generation benefit, discharge ratio and risk rate. Finally, the weighted Topsis method, considering subjective and objective weighting method, is applied to determine the best scheme. This method has been verified in Youjiang reservoir in Yujiang River Basin. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Combined with the discharge in the forecast period, the reservoir operating water level has a certain raising space in the flood free period. (2) The multi-order MCMC method effectively reflects the relationship between adjacent periods of runoff forecast error, and its simulation process is closer to the reality. (3) The Topsis method, which combines AHP with entropy weight method, can fully consider the characteristics of power generation efficiency, flow ratio and risk rate, and can effectively select satisfactory schemes from non-inferior schemes. This method provides a new idea for determining the operating water level of the reservoir in the flood season.

Keywords: Flood free period; Flood season segmentation; Multi-order MCMC; Discharge; Power generation benefit; Risk rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03188-z

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