Effects of Precipitation Concentration and Human Activities On City Runoff Changes

Cuimei Lv (), Xinrui Wang (), Minhua Ling (), Wenjing Xu () and Denghua Yan ()
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Cuimei Lv: Zhengzhou University
Xinrui Wang: Zhengzhou University
Minhua Ling: Zhengzhou University
Wenjing Xu: Zhengzhou University
Denghua Yan: China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2023, vol. 37, issue 13, No 4, 5023-5036

Abstract: Abstract Under the dual influences of precipitation and human activities, urban runoff has significantly changed. It is important to evaluate how precipitation characteristics and human activities may affect city runoff in the aspect of alleviating urban flooding problems. The impact of precipitation concentration and human activities on urban runoff was studied by hydro-statistical methods, to provide a scientific basis for the evolution regularity of urban runoff and the urban flood control. The investigation of sudden alterations in runoff was carried out utilizing two approaches—the method of Mann–Kendall test and the technique of double accumulation curve. Then, a regression model was used to analyze the relationship between the precipitation concentration and runoff during different periods. Using the SCRCQ method, we examined how changes in runoff are influenced by the concentration of precipitation and human activities. This research took Guangzhou city as a case study, analyzing the alteration in runoff from 1970 to 2020. The results indicated a rise in runoff of 132.9 mm between 2013 and 2020, attributable to the combined impacts of precipitation concentration and human activities. Specifically, human activities contributed to a runoff increase of 141.4 mm, while the decrease in precipitation concentration resulted in a runoff decrease of 8.5 mm. Human activities displayed a significant contribution rate of 94% to runoff, whereas the contribution rate of precipitation concentration was -6%. This research provides a scientific basis for alleviating urban floods.

Keywords: Precipitation concentration; Urban runoff; Double accumulation curve; Regression model; Contribution rate; Human activities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-023-03593-y

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