Convolutional Neural Network- ANN- E (Tanh): A New Deep Learning Model for Predicting Rainfall

Mahdie Afshari Nia, Fatemeh Panahi () and Mohammad Ehteram
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Mahdie Afshari Nia: University of Kashan
Fatemeh Panahi: University of Kashan
Mohammad Ehteram: Semnan University

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2023, vol. 37, issue 4, No 16, 1785-1810

Abstract: Abstract The prediction of rainfall is essential for monitoring droughts and floods. The purpose of this paper is to develop a deep learning model for predicting monthly rainfall. The new model is used to predict rainfall in the Kashan plain of Iran. This study combines a deep learning model with an artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict rainfall. In this study, a convolutional neural network (CONV) is used as a deep learning model. The paper also introduces a new activation function called E-Tanh to develop ANN models. The new model has two main advantages. The model automatically determines key features. In addition, the new activation function can enhance the precision of ANN models. Lagged rainfall values are inserted into the models to predict rainfall. This study uses a bat optimization algorithm to choose inputs. At the training level, the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPES) of CONV-ANN-ANN-E-Tanh, CONV, and ANN-E-Tanh were 0.5%, 1%, and 2%, respectively. At the testing level, the MAPEs of CONV-ANN -E-Tanh, CONV, and ANN-E-Tanh were 1%, 3%, and 4%, respectively. The E-Tanh performed better than other activation functions based on error function values. Also, the CONV-ANN-E-Tanh can reduce CPU time. Our results show that the new hybrid model is a reliable tool for simulating complex phenomena.

Keywords: Hydrological predictions; Hybrid model; Water resource management; Optimization algorithm; New activation function (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-023-03454-8

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