Attribution of Streamflow Changes Considering Spatial Contributions and Driver Interactions Based on Hydrological Modeling

Yinshan Xu, Yubin Chen, Yufeng Ren, Zhengyang Tang, Xu Yang and Yu Zhang ()
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Yinshan Xu: Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission
Yubin Chen: Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission
Yufeng Ren: China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd
Zhengyang Tang: China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd
Xu Yang: China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd
Yu Zhang: Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2023, vol. 37, issue 5, No 2, 1859-1877

Abstract: Abstract Streamflow is one of the most important elements of a water resources system and is key to understanding the conditions of water resources at different scales. Therefore, clarifying streamflow changes and the causes is important for water resources management under changing environments. The variability of streamflow and drivers is very complex in the spatial dimension, which is particularly evident in large scale regions. This study aims to develop a new attribution analysis method based on hydrological modeling that considers spatial contributions and driver interactions. A large-scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is established. The calibrated SWAT model provides detailed, high-resolution descriptions of small-scale processes that are numerically integrated to larger scales. Based on the distributed simulation under different scenarios, attribution analysis can be conducted at scales as small as the sub-basins can be divided. Results reveal that: (1) Streamflow of the entire Upper Yangtze River Basin was significantly reduced by -8.9 km3 per ten years during the study period. Streamflow changes exhibited different characteristics in space. This emphasizes the necessity of introducing spatial contributions into attribution analysis. (2) At the basin scale, the decrease in precipitation and wind speed, the increase in maximum temperature, and land use/ cover change (LUCC) all contribute to the decrease in streamflow. While the increase in minimum temperature and decrease in relative humidity have the effect of increasing streamflow. At the basin scale or smaller sub-basin scale, there are significant differences in the contributions of driving factors to streamflow changes. This has practical implications for water resources management in terms of refining attribution analysis and adopting targeted countermeasures. Key Points • Develops a new multi-routes-based attribution analysis method using large-scale hydrological modeling. • Introduces spatial contributions into attribution analysis. • Conducts a case study based on the proposed method using real-world data.

Keywords: Attribution analysis; Streamflow changes; SWAT; Upper Yangtze River Basin; Climate change; LUCC (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-023-03459-3

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