Climate change and local anthropogenic activities have altered river flow regimes across Canterbury, New Zealand

Doug J. Booker () and Ton H. Snelder
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Doug J. Booker: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
Ton H. Snelder: LWP Ltd. Christchurch

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2023, vol. 37, issue 6, No 24, 2657-2674

Abstract: Abstract River flow regimes influence ecologic, cultural, social, aesthetic, and economic values. Detecting changes in river flows and attributing their causes is important but challenging due to the combined influence of climate and relevant local activities, and the lack of data on water abstraction, drainage modification or land use management. This study assessed the degree to which trends in river flows could be attributed to changes in climate versus local anthropogenic activities across Canterbury, Aotearoa New Zealand. Trends were assessed for a period that started immediately after a change in regulatory regime in 1991 and ended in 2020, that coincided with increases in water abstraction and changes in water management practices. Trends in observed summer conditions indicated that rainfall was stable, temperature increased, and flows decreased for many sites during the assessed period. Models representing flow as a function of rainfall and temperature were trained and tested using cross-validation for an earlier baseline period. Predictions for the 1991–2020 period made with the models were used to account for the effect of change in climate. The difference between predicted and observed flows were attributed to changes in local activities. Decreases in summer flows were partially associated with changes in climate, but changes in summer flows in several catchments were also associated with local activities. The findings indicate changes to both climate and local activities have combined to alter flow regimes, suggesting that hydrological impacts of local activities should be considered alongside climate change when making river flow management decisions.

Keywords: Anthropocene; Anthropogenic alteration; Climate change impacts; River flow management; Streamflow depletion; Trend analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03233-x

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