Assessing the Anthropogenic and Climatic Components in Runoff Changes of the São Francisco River Catchment

Larissa S. Melo, Veber A. F. Costa and Wilson S. Fernandes ()
Additional contact information
Larissa S. Melo: Federal University of Minas Gerais
Veber A. F. Costa: Federal University of Minas Gerais
Wilson S. Fernandes: Federal University of Minas Gerais

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2023, vol. 37, issue 9, No 14, 3615-3629

Abstract: Abstract Quantifying the impacts caused by climate change and anthropogenic intervention on runoff is necessary for defining different adaptation strategies to climate change and understanding the future pattern of water and soil use for different human activities. Based on this rationale, this study proposes to associate the dynamics of flow variability in the São Francisco River catchment with that of climatic and anthropic covariates, by utilizing the Budyko framework and the decomposition method. Our results suggested that streamflow decreased in about 183 mm, 56 mm and 26 mm in the upper, middle and lower portions of the catchment, respectively. Climate change is the most prominent factor in the upstream region (75%, 43% and 42%), but the influence of human activities becomes more pronounced in the downstream areas (27%, 57% and 58%). However, as the drainage areas increase, model performance deteriorates, which introduces higher levels of bias and uncertainty to the attribution results.

Keywords: Budyko-type equation; Hierarchical Bayesian model; Decomposition method; Climate change; Anthropogenic intervention (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-023-03516-x Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:9:d:10.1007_s11269-023-03516-x

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11269

DOI: 10.1007/s11269-023-03516-x

Access Statistics for this article

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) is currently edited by G. Tsakiris

More articles in Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) from Springer, European Water Resources Association (EWRA)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().