Rainfall Extreme Indicators Trend and Meteorological Drought Changes Under Climate Change Scenarios

Mohammad Tavosi, Mehdi Vafakhah (), Hengameh Shekohideh, Seyed Hamidreza Sadeghi, Vahid Moosavi, Ziyan Zheng and Qing Yang
Additional contact information
Mohammad Tavosi: Tarbiat Modares University
Mehdi Vafakhah: Tarbiat Modares University
Hengameh Shekohideh: Tarbiat Modares University
Seyed Hamidreza Sadeghi: Tarbiat Modares University
Vahid Moosavi: Tarbiat Modares University
Ziyan Zheng: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Qing Yang: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2024, vol. 38, issue 11, No 22, 4393-4413

Abstract: Abstract In the current study, three optimistic (SSP1-2.6), medium (SSP2-4.5), and pessimistic (SSP5-8.5) scenarios were used to examine changes in precipitation based on the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in the Gorganrood watershed over two time periods: the near future (2021–2060) and the far future (2061–2100). To do this, the rainfall of 27 meteorological stations was studied. Using the RClimdex software in the R software, precipitation extreme indicators (11 indicators) were determined for different scenarios and periods, and Mann-Kendall (MK) and Sen’s estimator tests were then used to detect the trend. The results showed that in the near future under SSP1-2.6, the indicators of consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD) have a significant downward and upward trend, respectively. While in the SSP5-8.5, the indicators of maximum five-day rainfall (RX1day), CDD, number of very wet days (R95p) and total wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) have a significant downward trend in some stations. Similarly, in the far future, in the SSP5-8.5, the trend of rainfall indicators is insignificant compared to the near future, but still a significant decreasing trend can be seen in R95p, R99p, and PRCPTOT. Z score index (ZI) values ​​in both future periods showed that drought peaks occurred in the optimistic scenario and drought peaks occurred in the pessimistic scenario, and almost normal conditions prevailed in the intermediate scenario. The results can be effective in policies to deal with global warming and climate change. Graphical Abstract

Keywords: Climate extreme; Trend analysis; Rainfall; Climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-024-03871-3 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:waterr:v:38:y:2024:i:11:d:10.1007_s11269-024-03871-3

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11269

DOI: 10.1007/s11269-024-03871-3

Access Statistics for this article

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) is currently edited by G. Tsakiris

More articles in Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) from Springer, European Water Resources Association (EWRA)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().