Prediction of Monthly Flow Regimes Using the Distance-Based Method Nested with Model Swapping

Muhammad Uzair Qamar, Cuauhtémoc Tonatiuh Vidrio-Sahagún, Jianxun He (), Usama Tariq and Akbar Ali
Additional contact information
Muhammad Uzair Qamar: University of Calgary
Cuauhtémoc Tonatiuh Vidrio-Sahagún: University of Calgary
Jianxun He: University of Calgary
Usama Tariq: University of Agriculture
Akbar Ali: University of Agriculture

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2024, vol. 38, issue 14, No 10, 5597-5613

Abstract: Abstract The distance-based method is effective for hydrological prediction in ungauged basins, but challenges emerge when predicting flow regimes, as flow magnitude varies with time non-monotonically. Besides, substantial prediction errors often arise in basins with varying local characteristics and dynamics compared to their neighbour basins. This paper proposed a novel two-stage prediction approach that integrates the distance-based method also addressing high-flow timing with model swapping to improve predictions of monthly flow regimes in ungauged basins. In the distance-based method, dissimilarity is assessed based on lateral (timing) and vertical (magnitude) differences of high flows besides point-to-point differences between flow regimes. Model swapping improves regional model predictions by incorporating localized information at selected sites through the classical nearest neighbour principle in the descriptors’ space. This approach was applied in a case study in northwestern Italy, where model swapping was conducted at 77 out of 124 stations. The results indicate that incorporating model swapping enhances prediction accuracy by reducing the dissimilarity between observed and predicted flow regimes by 15% compared to the distance-based method. Moreover, this approach demonstrated improved predictions of high flow (i.e., ≥ 80% of the maximum monthly flow) and its timing. These results support the potential of this integrated approach for predicting complex flow regimes and their like.

Keywords: Distance-based method; Model swapping; Ungauged basin; Descriptor; Dissimilarity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-024-03923-8 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:waterr:v:38:y:2024:i:14:d:10.1007_s11269-024-03923-8

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11269

DOI: 10.1007/s11269-024-03923-8

Access Statistics for this article

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) is currently edited by G. Tsakiris

More articles in Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) from Springer, European Water Resources Association (EWRA)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().