Evaluation of the Complementary Characteristics for Wind-Photovoltaic-Hydro Hybrid System Considering Multiple Uncertainties in the Medium and Long Term

Lu Lu, Wenlin Yuan, Hongshi Xu (), Chengguo Su, Denghua Yan and Zening Wu
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Lu Lu: Zhengzhou University
Wenlin Yuan: Zhengzhou University
Hongshi Xu: Zhengzhou University
Chengguo Su: Zhengzhou University
Denghua Yan: China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
Zening Wu: Zhengzhou University

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2024, vol. 38, issue 2, No 20, 793-814

Abstract: Abstract Quantifying the complementary characteristics of the wind-photovoltaic-hydro(W-PV-H) system under multiple uncertainties is very important for the planning and operation of W-PV-H system. Due to the randomness of hydrometeorological elements, W-PV-H system has multiple uncertainties which is difficult to describe. Besides, the complementarity of W-PV-H system with three energy sources cannot be directly clarified by the available indicators, which brings challenges to the development of W-PV-H system. To reveal the complementary mechanism of W-PV-H system under multiple uncertainties, the Asymmetric Archimedean Copula (AAC) based on the fully nested method and the maximum possible weight function are combined to characterize the multiple uncertainties of W-PV-H system. Then the comprehensive complementarity coefficient(CCC) is established by coupling spatial coordinates and compromise planningto quantify the complementary characteristics of W-PV-H system. The method proposed in this paper is applied to the upper reaches of the Yellow River. The results show that AAC has advantages in constructing joint probability distributions compared with Symmetric Archimedean Copula. The most probable solutions under multiple return periods are all located near the cumulative frequency contour. Under various joint probabilities, the CCCs in the study area are all greater than 0.5, which indicates that the W-PV-H system has certain complementarity in medium-long-term. The medium-long-term complementarity in wind-hydro and PV-hydro are better, and the complementarity in wind-PV is the worst. Morever, the medium-long-term compensation relationship in W-PV-H system is revealed through two models with the participation of wind and PV power or not.

Keywords: Wind-photovoltaic-hydro System; Medium-long-term; Asymmetric Archimedean Copula; Multiple Uncertainties; Comprehensive Complementarity Coefficient (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-023-03699-3

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