Regional Water Environmental Carrying Capacity: Changing Trends and Direction, Obstacle Factors, and Implications

Xi Yang, Zhihe Chen () and Zhen Li
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Xi Yang: Sun Yat-Sen University
Zhihe Chen: Sun Yat-Sen University
Zhen Li: Sun Yat-Sen University

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2024, vol. 38, issue 9, No 7, 3215-3234

Abstract: Abstract Assessing regional water environment carrying capacity (WECC) is crucial for measuring sustainable development and guiding water resource management policies. However, existing methods often overlook the dynamic trends in carrying capacity and uncertainties in the assessment process. This study proposes a time-varying Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE) II model, integrating time series analysis and multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) to address these limitations. Using Guangdong Province, China as a case study, key factors influencing WECC are identified through a simplified assessment index system and obstacle degree model. Results demonstrate that: (1) the developed framework broadens the capabilities of current technologies and provides an effective method for dealing with uncertain trends in WECC over time. (2) the carrying capacity of water environment showed a large spatial difference, with high in the centre and low around, among which Shenzhen ranked first with 0.3498, and Shaoguan ranked 21st with-0.2584., (3) per capita water resources, ecological water ratio, green coverage rate of built-up areas, per capita GDP, proportion of tertiary industry and per capita disposable income affect the level of regional WECC, with obstruction frequency exceeding 85%. These insights assist decision-makers in developing region-specific strategies for comprehensive water resource management.

Keywords: Water environmental; Uncertainty; Time-varying PROMETHEE II; Obstacle factors; Guangdong (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-024-03810-2

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