Spatiotemporal Variation of the Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on the PS-DR-DP Model

Shiwei Zhang (), Tao Liao (), Guohua Fang (), Huayu Zhong (), Maosen Ju () and Dasheng Zhang ()
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Shiwei Zhang: Hohai University
Tao Liao: Jiangsu Provincial Water Conservancy Survey and Design Institute Co., Ltd.
Guohua Fang: Hohai University
Huayu Zhong: Hohai University
Maosen Ju: Hohai University
Dasheng Zhang: Hebei Institute of Water Science

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2025, vol. 39, issue 10, No 23, 5177-5194

Abstract: Abstract For the sustainable development of arid and semi-arid regions, a scientific assessment of the status of water resources and a detailed understanding of the water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) drivers are crucial. In this study, we introduce the concept of a spatial force system, establish a Pressure–Support, Destructiveness–Resilience, and Degradation–Promotion (PS-DR-DP) model, propose a subjective-objective combination weighting method based on minimum relative entropy, calculate the WRCC indices of nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), and analyze their spatiotemporal evolution. The results show that (1) positive force indices generally increased, while negative force indices decreased from 2011 to 2020 in all YRB provinces ; (2) from 2011 to 2015, the number of YRB provinces experiencing WRCC overload exceeded those experiencing a surplus. Conversely, from 2016 to 2020, provinces with a WRCC surplus outnumbered those with an overload. (3) greening coverage of built-up areas in the city, rate of untreated soil erosion, and water intensity in agriculture were dominant indicators driving changes in the WRCC index, exhibiting bi-enhancement after the interaction. The findings provide insights into the WRCC of YRB provinces and guide the development of rational and scientific water resource protection plans.

Keywords: WRCC; PS-DR-DP model; Yellow River Basin; Combination weighting method; Geodetector (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-025-04192-9

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