Expert System for Updating the Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curve Under Climate Change and Non-stationarity Over India

M. S. VishnuPriya and V. Agilan ()
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M. S. VishnuPriya: National Institute of Technology
V. Agilan: National Institute of Technology

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2025, vol. 39, issue 10, No 24, 5195-5210

Abstract: Abstract Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curves are essential for designing and managing various water resource projects. Typically, IDF curves are constructed by assuming that the extreme rainfall series is a stationary series. However, changes in several physical processes that drive extreme rainfall cause a non-stationary component in extreme rainfall, rendering the stationary IDF curve obsolete. Thus, updating existing rainfall IDF curves to ensure the reliable design of various water resource projects is crucial. Hence, this study proposes the development of an expert system for updating rainfall IDF curves by incorporating non-stationarity in the extreme rainfall across India. The developed expert system allows users to develop rainfall IDF curves under both stationary and non-stationary conditions. Further, the expert system assesses the applicability of the updated rainfall IDF curves under various climate change scenarios (using coupled model intercomparison phase 6 models). Six case studies conducted over India demonstrate the ability of the expert system to update the rainfall IDF curves.

Keywords: Climate change; Expert system; India; Non-stationarity; Rainfall IDF curves; SSP scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-025-04193-8

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