Forecasting 21st Century Hydrological Challenges in Arid Regions: Climate-induced Shifts in Runoff and Evapotranspiration

Sajjad Hussain (), Burhan Niyazi (), Amro Elfeki () and Milad Masoud
Additional contact information
Sajjad Hussain: King Abdulaziz University
Burhan Niyazi: King Abdulaziz University
Amro Elfeki: King Abdulaziz University
Milad Masoud: King Abdulaziz University

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2025, vol. 39, issue 11, No 18, 5719-5749

Abstract: Abstract The aim of this study is to examine the impact of climate change on runoff and potential evapotranspiration (PET) of Wadi Aqul, Saudi Arabia, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). A novel farmwork was developed to generate hydrological multi-model ensemble from multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs) with the integration of hydrological model (SWAT). The performance of SWAT was promising on both daily and monthly scales (rcalib > 0.85, rvalid > 0.75). Climate change impacts were assessed over baseline (1979–2010) and future periods (near future, Q1: 2026–2050, mid future, Q2: 2051–2075, and far future, Q3: 2076–2100). The baseline period indicated a slight, non-significant decline in runoff, while future projections revealed variation: under moderate emission (SSP4.5), runoff decreased slightly in Q1 and Q2 but increased by 60% in Q3. Conversely, the high emission (SSP8.5) scenario showed consistent runoff increase across all quarters (Q1 = 15.9%, Q2 = 13.6%, and Q3 = 48.8%). The Modified Men-Kendell (mMK) trend analysis indicated significant positive trends under SSP8.5, especially in Q3 (Zc = 5.6, Tau = 0.30). Similarly, PET have showed rise under both scenarios, with SSP8.5 exhibiting higher increases (14.5–22.5% across Q1 and Q2) compared to SSP4.5 (7.6–10.6%). Trend analysis of PET revealed significant increases (p

Keywords: Climate change; Hydrological modeling; Soil and water assessment tool; General circulation models; Modified Men-Kendell test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-025-04225-3 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:waterr:v:39:y:2025:i:11:d:10.1007_s11269-025-04225-3

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11269

DOI: 10.1007/s11269-025-04225-3

Access Statistics for this article

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) is currently edited by G. Tsakiris

More articles in Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) from Springer, European Water Resources Association (EWRA)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().