Reaction of Minimal Streamflow to Natural Factors in the Context of Climate Uncertainty

Lyazzat Birimbayeva, Lyazzat Makhmudova, Sayat Alimkulov, Aisulu Tursunova, Dimitris Tigkas, Nurlan Abayev, Aigerim Dostayeva, Zhomart Birimbayev, Oirat Alzhanov, María-Elena Rodrigo-Clavero and Javier Rodrigo-Ilarri ()
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Lyazzat Birimbayeva: JSC Institute of Geography and water security
Lyazzat Makhmudova: JSC Institute of Geography and water security
Sayat Alimkulov: JSC Institute of Geography and water security
Aisulu Tursunova: JSC Institute of Geography and water security
Dimitris Tigkas: National Technical University of Athens (NTUA)
Nurlan Abayev: National Hydrometeorological Service RSE Kazhydromet
Aigerim Dostayeva: JSC Institute of Geography and water security
Zhomart Birimbayev: JSC Institute of Geography and water security
Oirat Alzhanov: JSC Institute of Geography and water security
María-Elena Rodrigo-Clavero: Instituto de Ingeniería del Agua y del Medio Ambiente (IIAMA), Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)
Javier Rodrigo-Ilarri: Instituto de Ingeniería del Agua y del Medio Ambiente (IIAMA), Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2025, vol. 39, issue 12, No 1, 6009-6025

Abstract: Abstract This study analyzes long-term changes in minimal streamflow in the Zhaiyk-Caspian Water Management Basin (WMB), Western Kazakhstan, under climate variability. Using extensive hydrometeorological datasets (monthly discharge and daily meteorological records) from 1940 to 2021, the research assesses trends in low-flow characteristics across 18 hydrological posts. The analysis distinguishes two climatic periods: climate stabilization (pre-1973) and climate change (1974–2021). The methodology integrates hydrological and statistical analyses, including minimal monthly discharges, low-flow durations, soil freezing depths, and thaw frequencies. Findings reveal a widespread increase in winter low flows—up to 5.2 times—due to reduced frost depths and more frequent thaw events, enhancing groundwater contributions. Conversely, summer-autumn flows declined in several rivers, with drying trends linked to rising air temperatures and precipitation deficits. This study offers a novel, regionally adapted methodology for characterizing minimal streamflow under climate change, providing critical insights for hydrological drought assessment and water resource planning in arid and semi-arid environments.

Keywords: Minimal streamflow; Economic activity; Hydrological drought; Low-flow period; Soil freezing depth; Thaw (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-025-04238-y

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