Modeling GRACE-Based Groundwater Drought and its Teleconnections with Global Climate Drivers for Water Sustainability in Arid Regions

Javed Mallick (), Saeed Alqadhi (), Swapan Talukdar () and Hoang Thi Hang ()
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Javed Mallick: King Khalid University
Saeed Alqadhi: King Khalid University
Swapan Talukdar: Asutosh College, University of Calcutta
Hoang Thi Hang: King Khalid University

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2025, vol. 39, issue 13, No 9, 6907-6930

Abstract: Abstract Groundwater resources in arid regions like Saudi Arabia face severe threats from over-extraction and climate variability, impacting sustainability and food security. This study quantifies groundwater drought, evaluates spatiotemporal trends, assesses sustainability, and investigates global climate oscillations’ influences on groundwater dynamics. GRACE/GRACE-FO-derived Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies (TWSA), integrated with soil moisture, surface water, and precipitation data, computed Groundwater Storage Anomalies (GWSA). A standardized Groundwater Drought Index (GDI) assessed drought severity. Mann-Kendall tests, Sen’s slope analysis, and Reliability, Resiliency, and Vulnerability indicators evaluated trends and sustainability. Spatial Self-Organizing Maps classified hydrological and climatological patterns. Granger-integrated VAR models and wavelet coherence assessed influences of global climate oscillations. Significant depletion occurred (2002–2023), notably in southern/eastern regions (-5.5 cm in 2023). Extreme drought affected over 1.95 million km² (2020). Low reliability (0.46), resiliency (0.03), and high vulnerability occurred in Najran and Asir, with strong GDI-ENSO/PDO coherence (2005–2015), emphasizing targeted groundwater management strategies.

Keywords: GRACE; Groundwater drought; Global teleconnections; El Nino-southern oscillation; Groundwater sustainability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-025-04271-x

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