Numerical Modelling of Groundwater Level and Salinity Evolution in a Low-Lying Coastal Area Under Intensive Agricultural Activity

Mattia Gaiolini, Nicolò Colombani (), Valeria Chierici, Laura Montanari and Micòl Mastrocicco
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Mattia Gaiolini: Polytechnic University of Marche
Nicolò Colombani: Polytechnic University of Marche
Valeria Chierici: Consorzio di Bonifica Pianura di Ferrara
Laura Montanari: Consorzio di Bonifica Pianura di Ferrara
Micòl Mastrocicco: Campania University “Luigi Vanvitelli”

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2025, vol. 39, issue 4, No 13, 1747-1761

Abstract: Abstract The groundwater salinity changes of the coastal unconfined aquifer of the Po Delta (Italy) from 2010 to 2020 were assessed via a density-dependent numerical model implemented with SEAWAT 4.2. The temporal discretization was defined on a monthly basis, allowing for detailed analysis of the evolution of salinity stratification within the aquifer and of the vertical fluxes induced by the reclamation drainage network. The validated model was used to unravel surface-groundwater interaction fluxes and the long-term impacts induced by the ongoing climate change. The simulation highlighted that deeper layers experienced a salinity increase due to the presence of hyper saline low permeability lenses, while shallow layers experienced both increasing and decreasing salinization trends, depending on the temporal and areal distribution of local factors such as recharge and evapotranspiration, the connection between the shallow aquifer and the drainage network, and the presence of a seawater wedge along the coastline. The sensitivity analysis performed on the maximum plant salt uptake due to evapotranspiration revealed a slight variation in the accumulated salinity mass and concentration within the aquifer, resulting in a maximum error of less than 2% at the end of the simulation.

Keywords: Coastal aquifer; SEAWAT; Seawater intrusion; Paleo salinity; Reclamation network (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-024-04044-y

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