Assessing the Spatio-Temporal Evolution Mechanisms from Meteorological to Hydrological Drought in a Heavily Human-Influenced River Basin

Yuefen Zhang, Jianzhu Li (), Ping Feng and Jiyang Tian
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Yuefen Zhang: China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
Jianzhu Li: Tianjin University
Ping Feng: Tianjin University
Jiyang Tian: China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2025, vol. 39, issue 4, No 19, 1873-1892

Abstract: Abstract Due to the joint impacts of climate change and human activities, it is still a challenging task to objectively evaluate the evolution mechanisms from meteorological drought (MD) to hydrological drought (HD). This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the spatio-temporal evolution mechanisms from MD to HD at the multi-timescales over Ziya River Basin in China, by using the two widely used drought indices (DIs): the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI). The relationship between MD and HD is investigated by the DI timeseries and extraction of drought events. The evolution mechanism from MD to HD is explored by the propagation time thresholds, spatial drought characteristics, and centroid trajectory, and the response of HD to MD is quantified by the regression model. The results indicate that there is a strong correlation (correlation coefficient, R > 0.655) between SPI and SSI at all timescales, and R increases as the timescale increases, with the greatest R being 0.899 between SPI12 and SSI12. Spatially, the duration (D) and severity (S) of HD tend to be higher than that of MD, while the frequency (F) is the opposite. In addition, MD (HD) centroid positions exhibit strong (light) spatio-temporal variability in ZRB, and long-lasting and high-intensity drought events tend to occur in the central part of the study area. Our results also highlight there is a clear non-linear relationship between HD and MD. Moreover, D and S of HD under human-influenced conditions are lower (higher) at short (long) timescales than under natural conditions.

Keywords: Meteorological Drought; Hydrological Drought; Drought Characteristics; Evolution Process; Centroid Trajectory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-024-04049-7

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