Data-Driven Insights into Climate Change Effects on Groundwater Levels Using Machine Learning

Xinyong Lu (), Zimo Wang (), Menghao Zhao (), Songzhe Peng (), Song Geng () and Hamzeh Ghorbani ()
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Xinyong Lu: Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering
Zimo Wang: Nankai University
Menghao Zhao: Qingdao University
Songzhe Peng: Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications
Song Geng: Shanghai Normal University Tianhua College
Hamzeh Ghorbani: Islamic Azad University

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2025, vol. 39, issue 7, No 28, 3536 pages

Abstract: Abstract Climate change disrupts groundwater levels (GWL) by modifying precipitation patterns, reducing recharge rates, and limiting water availability. Rising temperatures and evolving weather patterns further degrade surface and groundwater quality. These changes exacerbate competition for water resources, heightening allocation challenges and ecological disruptions. Groundwater fluctuations adversely affect ecosystems, causing habitat disturbances and biodiversity loss. This study explores the impacts of climate change on GWL using machine learning techniques to analyze 9,430 time series data points (1993–2021) from Northern China. Four distinct classes of top-performing machine learning models were evaluated. The CNN model demonstrated superior performance, achieving an R² value of 0.9924 and an RMSE of 0.1832, highlighting its efficacy in processing complex patterns. Pearson correlation analysis revealed that Average Annual Precipitation (AAP), Average Soil Moisture (ASM), and Evapotranspiration (EV) positively influence GWL, while Severe Wet Potential (SWP), Severe Drought Potential (SDP), and Temperature (T) exhibit negative correlations. Feature ranking identified AAP as the most critical factor for groundwater recharge, followed by ASM and EV, which also play significant roles in groundwater dynamics. These findings provide a robust understanding of the key drivers influencing groundwater recharge and storage, offering valuable insights to inform sustainable water resource management in the context of climate change.

Keywords: Climate Change; Groundwater Level; Water risk; Water Resources Management; Machine Learning Algorithms (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-025-04120-x

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