The EU-Korea FTA: anticipation, trade policy uncertainty and impact
Csilla Lakatos and
Lars Nilsson ()
Additional contact information
Lars Nilsson: European Commission
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), 2017, vol. 153, issue 1, 179-198
Abstract Anticipatory trade effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) have been documented in various papers. One reason put forward trying to explain this phenomenon is reduced trade policy uncertainty. This paper is one of the first to explore the role of anticipation and trade policy uncertainty in the case of a recently concluded deep and comprehensive EU FTA, including significant behind the border measures. We use monthly data at a lower level of aggregation (8-digit level) compared to previous studies and we account for changes in the EU product classification over time. We also distinguish between the impact on products which are actually subject to liberalisation under the FTA as opposed to those which are already duty-free and we examine the effects on both the extensive margin and the intensive margin. We consider the impact of the FTA during three different periods of time (the start of negotiations, initialling of the agreement and entry into force), while comparing with the period before negotiations began. The results indicate that the FTA has had a positive impact on exports on both margins. The impact on the EU is somewhat higher indicating that EU exporters have more to gain in terms of increasing the predictability of the trade policy regime of the destination market and lowering its tariffs than vice versa. The results demonstrate that the impact of FTAs should not be assessed against the time period just prior to entry into force of the agreement, but much earlier to account for anticipation effects.
Keywords: EU; FTA; Anticipation; Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10290-016-0261-1 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:weltar:v:153:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10290-016-0261-1
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... cs/journal/10290/PS2
Access Statistics for this article
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv) is currently edited by Paul Bergin, Holger Görg, Cédric Tille and Gerald Willmann
More articles in Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv) from Springer, Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla ().