Out-migration and economic cycles
Remi Bazillier (),
Francesco Magris and
Daniel Mirza ()
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), 2017, vol. 153, issue 1, 39-69
Abstract Out-migration concerns foreigners who decide to leave a country where they used to live. Taking advantage of the OECD bilateral IMS database, we analyze the short-run determinants of out-migration using a panel of Schengen countries between 1995 and 2011. We find that out-migration is counter-cyclical: foreign nationals tend to leave host countries with high unemployment, while they are likelier to stay in good times (i.e. low unemployment). Typically, a 10 % increase in the unemployment rate leads to a 5 % increase in out-migration. Thus, short-term economic fluctuations have the same qualitative effect as restrictive migration policies in economic downturns. However, we find mixed evidence for the role of economic cycles in the potential destination countries of those flows. Movers appear to be sensitive to unemployment changes in their country of origin, but they do not seem to be sensitive to business cycles in potential destinations.
Keywords: Migration; Outflows; Business cycle; F22; J61; 015 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10290-016-0267-8 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
Working Paper: Out-migration and economic cycles (2017)
Working Paper: Out-Migration and Economic Cycles (2016)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:weltar:v:153:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10290-016-0267-8
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... cs/journal/10290/PS2
Access Statistics for this article
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv) is currently edited by Paul Bergin, Holger Görg, Cédric Tille and Gerald Willmann
More articles in Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv) from Springer, Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla ().