Measuring economic impact in Korea, Japan, India, China, and ASEAN considering agricultural sectors: a dynamic CGE approach based on GAMS

Syed Shoyeb Hossain () and Huang Delin ()
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Syed Shoyeb Hossain: The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Huang Delin: The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences

Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), 2022, vol. 158, issue 2, No 6, 613 pages

Abstract: Abstract Tariff removal has always a positive impact on increasing trade between countries. Trade liberalization always leads to an expansion in intraregional and interregional trade, which is also supposed to stimulate investment and economic growth in the long term. Considering the aforementioned, this paper employs a multi-region, multi-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to investigates the economic impacts of tariff removal in Korea, Japan, India, China, and ASEAN. To conduct the investigation, this paper constructs general algebraic modeling system (GAMS) language to find an answer to how the simulated region's economy affects after the tariff removal. The simulation results show Korea, Japan and India ranked the top countries with an average growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.13%, 0.01%, and 0.004%, respectively. Moreover, China and ASEAN followed with a decline in average gross domestic product (GDP) by − 0.02% and − 0.002%. A significant increase in consumption is observed in China, where, consumption declines in Japan, Korea, India, and ASEAN. The average export in China, Japan, Korea, and ASEAN reduce by − 1.8%, − 0.43%, − 24%, and − 2.3%, where, export in India expands to 0.58%. The analysis of this study finds that Korea's economy will gain more by growing commodities output like rice, wheat, cereal grains, and textile-wearing apparel by 3.8%, 2.7%, 2.5%, and 8.5%, accordingly. In conclusion, this study is directed to policymakers looking at valuable information for decision-making.

Keywords: Agriculture; Computable general equilibrium model; Policy; Social accounting matrix; Trade liberalization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D12 D58 F14 O53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s10290-021-00439-w

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