Higher frequency activity indicators and global bond portfolio adjustments

Emanuel Kohlscheen

Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), 2023, vol. 159, issue 4, No 5, 943-964

Abstract: Abstract This paper analyzes the relation between country-specific high-frequency activity indicators and bond holdings in the portfolio of global investors. Based on positions from more than 20,000 investment funds, it finds that bond flows are significantly impacted by high-frequency activity levels and policy rates in emerging markets. Local “pull factors” have become important drivers of bond purchases. This effect of activity data—as captured by the Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs)—is stronger in the cases of India, China, Brazil and Indonesia as bond purchases in these markets appear to respond more to changes in activity survey responses. Overall, standardized coefficients indicate that an increase in a country’s PMI reading has an effect on bond purchases that is on average as large as that of a decrease in a global risk metric or a reduction in US Treasury yields. That said, during episodes of bond outflows global factors dominate.

Keywords: High-frequency activity; Capital flows; Emerging markets; Investment; Portfolio adjustment; Output; Pro-cyclicality; Spillovers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E43 E44 F32 F34 F43 F65 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s10290-022-00488-9

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